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Thread: My year to date

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Xopods's Avatar
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    Default My year to date

    This is my worst downswing in a long time. Maybe ever. I'm over $2k off my peak right after that $3k cash in the Big $27.50 at the beginning of December, though a few hundred of that is BAP money, so in terms of personal bankroll it's not quite that bad, just almost.

    I got Poker Copilot halfway through January, so it's only got my last 110 or so tournaments (and only Hold'em ones), but the graphs make it pretty clear what's going on:

    Playing at about +20 BB/100 all-in EV and running nearly 10 BB/100 below EV, both pretty impressive when you're considering I'm playing turbos where the stacks are only 10-20 BB deep for most of the hands played.



    It looks like I should still be turning a profit, but exactly when in the tournaments is the runbad happening? I'll give you one guess (this is finish positions):



    Result (thank god I cashed the $700 TCOOP main event):

    Last edited by Xopods; February 17th, 2014 at 09:08 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by pikachar
    Honestly didn t read OP I just got to say xopods is right on the money
    I design board & card games!: http://www.benefactum.ca

  2. #2
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    Sorry to hear this Xopods...I've just starting playing turbos but there seems to be even more variance and busting out earlier due to this. What is your plan? Is it possible to play more cash games to even things out? I used to think that playing more SNG would generate more winnings but at last count I have gone from 1:1.2 to almost exactly even on those.

    As you have said to me variance will turn when it feels like it

  3. #3
    Super Moderator Xopods's Avatar
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    Yep. As long as that yellow line in the first graph keeps moving steadily in the correct direction, I'll keep playing. Eventually the stars will align again and I'll final table something. This endless min-cashing and pre-bubble flame outs is getting pretty tiresome though.

    There's also another form of runbad plaguing me that isn't represented in the graphs, which is that if I have about 8-12 BB and I'm in the SB and it folds to me, the guy in the BB is guaranteed to be holding AA. The number of crucial steal attempts that have exploded in my face is really quite astounding.

    EDIT: Just looked at my stats by position. -43 BB/100 hands on the Button and -20 the SB, for the reason stated above. Profitable in every other position except UTG. Just getting murdered whenever I try to steal from the Button or SB.
    Last edited by Xopods; February 17th, 2014 at 12:28 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by pikachar
    Honestly didn t read OP I just got to say xopods is right on the money
    I design board & card games!: http://www.benefactum.ca

  4. #4
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    Not sure if this belongs here but in the last few months I have been in a brutal downswing getting beat by what i presumed as garbage hands. this weekend i downloaded a poker hand calculator app for my tablet and had it up while playing. In a $6 R/A, which I have been playing for a while and never getting to the money i used this app and was amazed at the hands that i would normally fold had become descent starting hands. I ended up min cashing and did not need to rebuy or add on so i made a profit. I am sure you are more advanced than I am myslef but this help me refresh some of the math skills I have been missing and forgetting over time
    Quote Originally Posted by Steve R View Post
    leaves you disappointed and dealing with sand under your sack for a couple days

  5. #5
    Super Moderator Xopods's Avatar
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    I'm pretty sure my equity estimates are considerably more accurate than what your app is giving you. What does it do, put your opponents on random cards or assume they always have top pair or something? Or is it just giving you your preflop odds against random hands?
    Quote Originally Posted by pikachar
    Honestly didn t read OP I just got to say xopods is right on the money
    I design board & card games!: http://www.benefactum.ca

  6. #6
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    It gives you preflop odds against unknown hands. it cycles through upto 150000 hands to give you the odds based on unknowns
    Quote Originally Posted by Steve R View Post
    leaves you disappointed and dealing with sand under your sack for a couple days

  7. #7
    Super Moderator Xopods's Avatar
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    Yeah, that's a pretty bad way to think about hands unless your stack is like 4 BB or less. Don't turn into Warren, please.
    Quote Originally Posted by pikachar
    Honestly didn t read OP I just got to say xopods is right on the money
    I design board & card games!: http://www.benefactum.ca

  8. #8
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    I have been just using it to see if my range needs to open up and of course it did. I have only used it once and it seemed to help a bit. I am just using it for refresher on poker math. I have been reading books watching videos and all that trying to improve my game but i was still getting crushed by hands that i would have tossed away. I am using this as a visualization rather than a this is how I will play type thing since it does give out the outs needed to win and I am a visual leaner.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steve R View Post
    leaves you disappointed and dealing with sand under your sack for a couple days

  9. #9
    Super Moderator Xopods's Avatar
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    Opening up your game is certainly a good thing but equity against random hands is not the most important consideration in hand selection, unless you're super short-stacked.

    A hand like A6o has pretty good equity against random cards, but it's still not a great hand. When you've got enough chips to play post-flop poker, it tends to get you in tough spots, because neither a pair of Sixes with an A kicker nor a pair of Aces with a Six kicker is a wonderful hand, and you can't make a flush or a straight. And when you're playing push-fold, it's a hand that will likely be crushed if called.

    In both cases, something like 97s is a better hand, but your equity calculator is going to tell you it's worse, because it's behind random Tx, Jx, Qx and Kx hands which your A6o is ahead of. But your opponents aren't typically going to be calling with those hands, and 97s is considerably better off against, say, AJo than A6o is. And more importantly, you're more likely to know where you're at postflop with the 97s, and have more ways to improve when you're behind.
    Quote Originally Posted by pikachar
    Honestly didn t read OP I just got to say xopods is right on the money
    I design board & card games!: http://www.benefactum.ca

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