Welcome to PokerForums.org

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Results 1 to 10 of 10
  1. #1
    Sergeant
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    131
    PFO Points
    1810

    Default jam or not to jam

    blinds 8/1600 w/200 antes

    zloykomyak(CO) $227610 - VP:33 PFR:14 AF:1.1 W:63|60 STL:50|0 3B:8|100 CB:75|0 N:232466 Hands:49


    Me(UTG) $107490 - VP:32 PFR:21 AF:3.3 W:45|47 STL:62|57 3B:10|38 CB:58|53 N:-1178347



    zloykomyak(CO) $227610
    Me(UTG) $107490 -


    Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [Js,Jh] raises 3200,
    zloykomyak(CO) raises 13400,




    jam / fold? he's chip leader and been showing aggression. I'm 4th overall, 45 left of 1400.

    I was thinking 4 bet but then committed if he shoves so maybe I shove first to make it hard on him. Ok w/flipping if he had aq+ and he might all 10s there thinking I had ak.
    w/his stats, i didnt value his 3b 2 much.

  2. #2
    Sergeant
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    131
    PFO Points
    1810

    Default

    kewl, just did this on the ftt hand displayer

    PREFLOP: Pot: 3,600

    Player Stack BBS M Action Amount BBS New Pot Hand
    UTG1 HERO 107,490 67.2 44.8 RAISE 3,200 2.0 6,800 J J
    UTG2 Jujubh 42,599 26.6 17.7 FOLD
    HJ Kulikov N.A. 52,608 32.9 21.9 FOLD
    CO zloykomyak 227,610 142.3 94.8 RAISE 13,400 8.4 20,200
    BT michelgf85 61,865 38.7 25.8 FOLD
    SB Sixortion 11,612 7.3 4.8 FOLD
    BB Clitmasteri 74,915 46.8 31.2 FOLD
    UTG1 HERO 104,290 65.2 43.5 RAISE 107,290 67.1 127,490
    CO zloykomyak 214,210 133.9 89.3 CALL 93,890 58.7 221,380
    FLOP: 2 7 9 Pot: 221,380
    TURN: 2 7 9 6 Pot: 221,380
    RIVER: 2 7 9 8 Pot: 221,380

  3. #3
    Private
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Posts
    9
    PFO Points
    90

    Default

    Are shoving or folding really the only viable options? What raising range do you put him on?
    You are most likely flipping. How about just call and see the flop, then decide.

  4. #4
    Sergeant
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    131
    PFO Points
    1810

    Default

    i put him on 77+,A7s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo as he's been pretty aggro..had 65% equity here

    figure he'd call off 99+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+
    which still gave 60%.

    if i 4 bet pretty much committed if he shoved
    if i flatted and any overs he would be bluffing at it or 3 bet my cbet as a bluff
    if i cbet then maybe pot committed?

    how would you have played?

  5. #5
    Private
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Posts
    9
    PFO Points
    90

    Default

    You still have a decent stack and based on your perceived stack of villain you are putting your tournament at risk by shoving. I'm not a fan of flipping for my tournament life. I think I sometimes play it too safely. I would probably call and see the flop and check if overs came. You still have a playable stack. I think folding to the raise is way too nitty but shoving with jacks is to aggressive unless you have reasonable fold equity. Even very aggressive players wake up with monsters. Of course if you shove and win then you are likely one of the chip leaders. If you are right about his range and want to go for the gusto then shoving is fine.

  6. #6
    Brigadier General
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Levittown PA
    Posts
    2,954
    PFO Points
    46436
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default

    1. You opened from early position. None of your analysis seems to take any of this into consideration. Even LAGs will tend to have respect for EP raises.

    2. His relevant stats are 32/14 3b 8%.

    3. You assigned him a 3 bet range of 19%. 5% higher than his total PFR.

    4. You assigned him a range to call off a EP open/4 bet of 16%. Higher than his total PFR range, against a EP/Open/4bet.

    Your ranges that you assigned him are way too loose.

    In fact, I would analyze his range like this.

    His 8% 3 bet has to take into account the high % 3 bet spots balanced with 3 betting when it is not a good 3 bet spot. For instance, against a LAG opening from LP, his 3 bet frequency might be as high as double the 8%, thereby his attacking these spots will affect his overall stats. Additionally, he has a relatively small sample to try to make spot on 3 bet reads.

    Therefore, typically for his 3 bet frequencies, I would assume a more standard range until I have enough hands to make a meaningful assumption from his stats.

    Of course, JJ+ and AK are always in that range. Random bluffs are in that range. Maybe the hands like A8s/A7s or hands like J9s.

    With these stacks, against an EP range, hands like 99 and AQ are calling range hands. Players (smart ones at least) are not getting 60 BBs in preflop with AQ and 99. In fact, there are some who would fold JJ and AK for stacks this large.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan Little View Post
    I typed out a nice long reply then I realized it said almost the exact same thing as jjpregler said right above me.


  7. #7
    Sergeant
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    131
    PFO Points
    1810

    Default

    excellent feedback! exactly why we are all here on this forum!

    i think i tend to go over aggro when 3b and hate to win lost pots where im aggressor.

    as played on flop,

    options 1) check raise large and be ready to get it in 2) lead large get it in 3) check call and shove turn.

    jj, thanks, that's a great analysis and points!

    I think i tend to assign too wide a range to lags in these situations. I let him play perfectly by shoving. Definitely more work needs to be done!

  8. #8
    Brigadier General
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Levittown PA
    Posts
    2,954
    PFO Points
    46436
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default

    One thing I notice about when players put others on ranges as you did, technically, all of those hands could be in there. Of course the big ones are there. Maybe once in a while they decide to overplay AQ and middle pairs. Maybe they are bluffing with hands like J9s or medium suited aces.

    Really all of they hands could be in there. The technical difference is when you run the ranges on a hand calculator like that, it runs it as if all of the non-premium hands are in there 100% of the time. Of course you will see players show up with AQ once in a while, but you will more often find that in the call ranges of players. However, if you run equities that would account for AQ being in his range with the same frequency as he is dealt AQ will skew your results.

    You should start first with the hands that are always in there. In this case I would say JJ+ and AK are pretty safe. Of course, some less aggressive players might flat JJ and AK, but that is another step to consider dealt frequency: 3 bet frequency.

    JJ+ and AK = 40 hands

    Then assign a range of bluff hands. The lowest assumption would be 10% bluff range. So in that case, add 4 additional hands to consider.

    A9s = 4 hands.

    So in case 1: JJ+, AK, and A9s. You see our random bluff range can be anything that might bluff. I usually pick from bluff hands that have ok equity against my hand.

    An average bluff range might be 20% - 25% of the value range. Here we would need to add 10 hands.

    A9s/A8s + T7d, T7c = 10 hands. So now we add that to our value range and run this equity.

    Aggressive (or better) players would have closer to a balanced range. This entirely depends on the bet size. The formula to find the game theory balanced bluff frequency is:

    f = S/(S + P), where P equals the pot and S equals the sizing of the bet. In your case there was 6,800 in the pot and your opponent bet 13,400. When you account for a raise, you add his call to the pot first, making the adjusted pot 10,000 and his bet 10,200.

    f = 10,200/(10,200 + 10,000) = 10,200/20,200 = 50%.

    So his bluff range should be 50% the size of his value range.

    Value range = 40 hands, so pick out 20 random bluffs to be in his range.

    And the maniacs start surpassing the balanced range amount.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan Little View Post
    I typed out a nice long reply then I realized it said almost the exact same thing as jjpregler said right above me.


  9. #9
    Brigadier General
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Levittown PA
    Posts
    2,954
    PFO Points
    46436
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default

    Now analyzing further, my first analysis is an analysis of what he is supposed to have. My second and third are the best case and worst case scenarios.

    Generally here a standard EP open range is 10% - 12%. (While I'm generally identified as LAG, I don't get too far out of line in EP). So if I have 12% range, the range of hands ahead of my range are the top 6%:

    88+, AJs+, and AQ+ in general. Of this, I would assume that the bottom half of these are generally calling range: AQ, AJs, and TT - 88. JJ and AKo statistically fall in the borderline of the top half/bottom half of the value range. So I'll include them both for accuracy. His balanced bluff range for his sizing should be 50% the size of the value range. Or 20 hands.

    Let's use the suited Axs hands that don't make good positional calls, A9s, A8s, A7s, and A6s for 16 hands and we need one more, K9s. Against this total range JJ is:

    http://www.pokerstrategy.com

    UTG 48.10% { JJ }
    CO 51.90% { JJ+, AKs, A9s-A6s, K9s, AKo }

    Overall, JJ is only marginal against this range. Definitely not strong enough to 3 bet this range.

    Let's look at the worst case scenario. JJ+ and AK with only 10% bluff range.

    http://www.pokerstrategy.com

    UTG 39.85% { JJ }
    CO 60.15% { JJ+, AKs, A9s, AKo }

    In this case, JJ is barely a marginal call.

    Now let's examine the best case scenario. Someone 3 betting slightly wider, with more bluffs. (I'll use 75% of the value range)

    http://www.pokerstrategy.com

    UTG 58.16% { JJ }
    CO 41.84% { 99+, AQs+, A9s-A6s, K9s-K6s, Q9s-Q7s, J8s, AQo+ }

    Now we are ahead enough to 3 bet. He may call off a weaker range and his fold will be high enough our fold equity alone will provide a profit.

    Clearly if this player is aggressive, he's raising more than the second scenario. But his stats do not indicate the maniac levels of range in the third scenario. So i would expect most of the time his range will be fairly close to the original scenario in this post. Of course, it may be off by a hand here or there and his bluff hands might be selected differently, but the deviations won't be so large that the analysis would be completely off.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan Little View Post
    I typed out a nice long reply then I realized it said almost the exact same thing as jjpregler said right above me.


  10. #10
    Sergeant
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    131
    PFO Points
    1810

    Default

    wow ..
    so would u say that we would adjust higher / lower based on if he's lag / tag?

    doesn't seem like my JJ in EP are that good in such a spot and should play more for pot control as only 1/3 of those spots warrant a 3bet.

    i will have to reread and think about this spot a lot more.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •