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  1. #1
    Sergeant
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    Default Is this a spot I should have taken 14bb and A3s?

    Position Name Stack

    MP 60,430 (6 bb)
    CO 413,192 (41.3 bb) Stats 32/17 steal from co 20%
    BTN Hero 139,071 (13.9 bb)
    SB 241,596 (24.2 bb) stats 24/20
    BB 409,380 (40.9 bb) stats 11/8


    Stakes/Buy-In: $5+$0.50

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with A of diamonds 3 of diamonds

    MP folds, CO raises to 20,000

    Hero?

    I´m looking through my hh trying to find spots I´ve missed.This one may be obvious to you but I need some confirmation please. Is this a good steal spot or not?

    I folded because I felt that although his stats were wide, his raising range was 17% (he open limped quite often) and his steal was low ish at 20% from the cutoff (albeit small sample) & I had the 2 blinds to get through.

    However, when I put this in my EV calculator it comes out as +EV spot assuming he opened 17% hands and would only call off with 9% only giving me 48% fold equity. Does this range seem reasonable?

    I also had the blinds to get through but the bb was a nit and the sb with 24bb would have need a decent hand to call off. So all in all I felt it was close but one I should have taken. Do you agree?

    Thanks!

  2. #2
    Sergeant First Class GingerNinja's Avatar
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    Default

    Is this a sit n go or tournament?

    What are the blinds and antes?

  3. #3
    Sergeant
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    Default

    MTT blinds 5000/10000 antes 1000. The pot pre after his raise was 40k

  4. #4
    Brigadier General
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    Default

    How many hands? 20% steal from CO is actually quite low, but if you have a small sample, you can't make clear observations from that stat.

    Typically, this is a standard "shove those chippies in his face spot."

    1) Late position open. Typically these are a wide enough range to give you good fold equity.
    2) Good stack to shove.
    3) Good hand that will have at least ok equity if you happen to get called.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan Little View Post
    I typed out a nice long reply then I realized it said almost the exact same thing as jjpregler said right above me.


  5. #5
    Sergeant
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    Default

    Thanks Joey! Only 70hands. What would be bottom end of your range to shove here & please don´t say any 2!!

  6. #6
    Brigadier General
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    Well, if you are getting about 70% FE:Alright, let's make the following assumptions:

    1) 30% open range. CO is about typically 30% - 40% on the tight side.
    2) Call off range about 10%

    So:

    66% * 40,000 + 30%[(298,142x) - 139,071] = 0, solve for x.

    x = 17.1%

    Which means you can profitably shove any hand that would have 17.1% equity against the top 10% of hands.

    Now you can start fiddling with the FE and do a 50/50 FE call split

    50% * 40,000 + 50%[(298,142x) - 139,071] = 0, solve for x.

    x = 33.% equity against the top 15%

    And worst case scenario, is that he calls 100%. In this case you would need a hand that gets 32% equity against the top 30%

    Solution #1 is ATC
    Solution 2 is top 40% of hands
    Solution #3 is 77% of hands.

    You can realistically shove really wide as #1 case is the most often seen. Case #2 is the good balanced player and case #3 is the calling station.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan Little View Post
    I typed out a nice long reply then I realized it said almost the exact same thing as jjpregler said right above me.


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